When I started considering this question a few years ago, it seemed like a complex question. The eventual outcome would be determined by a tangled stew of global sociological dynamics, trade and investment flows, migration patterns, economic growth rates, popular culture development and marketing, thought and opinion leadership, technology development, etc.
I since have come to believe the answer is fairly simple: No, because Chinese is too difficult to learn and master as a second language.
Certainly Chinese is an important language today, if for no other reason than because more than 1 billion people use it. And, it will remain important for many decades and probably centuries into the future.
But, will large numbers of non-native speakers someday use it as a neutral, common language in order to converse with each other? Will corporate executives from France and Germany shift to Chinese when they meet to discuss business? How about students from Ghana and Thailand studying together in Canada? Or, government ministers from India and Australia discussing trade issues?
I don’t believe so. And, those are the attributes that define a “global language”.
Friday, November 28, 2008
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2 comments:
In answer to your question, the reply is that neither Mandarin Chinese nor "international" English will become the dominant global language.
I live in London and if anyone says to me “everyone speaks English” my answer is “Listen and look around you”. If people in London do not speak English then the whole question of a global language is completely open.
The promulgation of English as the world’s “lingua franca” is unethical and linguistically undemocratic. I say this as a native English speaker!
Unethical because communication should be for all and not only for an educational or political elite. That is how English is used internationally at the moment.
Undemocratic because minority languages are under attack worldwide due to the encroachment of majority ethnic languages. Even Mandarin Chinese is attempting to dominate as well. The long-term solution must be found and a non-national language, which places all ethnic languages on an equal footing is long overdue.
An interesting video can be seen at http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_YHALnLV9XU Professor Piron was a former translator with the United Nations
A glimpse of Esperanto can be seen at http://www.lernu.net
Competition is a good thing. I hope a new, better language does evolve and become widely adopted. Maybe Esperanto will be the basis for that language.
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